There is information in the stope of the US treasury yield curve, but I think that we need to use it with caution. In my view, the flattening of the yield curve in the last two years has been more ...

It is widely known that markets can be influenced by economic data releases that deviate significantly from consensus. We have quantified the impact of economic surprises on the US government bond ...

Every academic discipline has dirty secrets. Those of economics include the fact that some of our best known principles are based on very thin data. The Phillips curve, which is relevant to much of ...

Much has been made about an impending recession. The reasons, however, are seldom discussed, are even less understood, and do little to inform what actions investors should take (if any). Economists ...